The classified document allegedly is a "battle plan" related to attacking Iran. The meeting in Bedminister was attended by Trump and two persons assisting Trump's former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows's with writing his memoir. It was audio-recorded with Trump's permission. The recording has Trump bragging about showing them the secret document.
Trump claimed on Fox News he was just "puffing" (like a drug dealer puffs up to his buyer the amount he can get, the amounts he has sold, the frequency his supplier delivers, the quality of his drugs, and how much money he's made dealing).
Two days after the Government requested security camera footage, intending to check Nauta's denial about moving boxes of documents around, De Oliveira and Trump have a 24 minute telepone conference. Since Oliveira doesn't have the skills to do that, he brings "Trump employee #4", Yuscil Taveras, a tech expert at Mar-a-lago in charge of the server, to a room called the "audio closet", where the server containing the security camera footage is housed.
Mr. Taveras objected and said he did not know how to delete the server and did not think he had the right to do so, the indictment said. At that point, the indictment said, Mr. De Oliveira insisted again that “the boss” wanted the server deleted, asking, “What are we going to do?”
Trump still has two more Indictments on the horizon. A third Indictment is expected to be returned by a state grand jury in Georgia investigating Trump and his lawyers' bogus claims the election was stolen from him. And a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia is wrapping up its investigation into the January 6th storming of the Capitol.
My question is: At what point is Trump going to crack from all the pressure? Especially if he is confronted with four distinct Indictments.
Whether it remains two cases or expands to four cases, and regardless of whether he ultimately wins or loses, the personal, financial and emotional toll on him and his family will be enormous. It always is when the Justice Department uses the awesome powers of the federal government to place someone in its cross-hairs.
Complex cases with mountains of evidence drag on for months, sometimes years, particularly in multi-defendant cases. This wreaks havoc in the daily lives of the defendants and their families.
First, there is the uncertainty as to the future, the inability to make plans, the "what if"s, the worry about the effect on the defendant's spouse, partner or children. It eats away at the joy in life. I cannot think of a single federal criminal defendant whose life wasn't up-ended by the process. Sure, many can cope with the stress by compartmentalizing it. They may continue working, spending evenings and weekends and holidays with their families, but the charges and fear of the potential consequences are always the elephant in the room. They can never get far enough away from it to fully relax and enjoy life the way they did before learning they were under investigation for or charged with a serious crime.
Question 2: Will a global resolution of the two pending cases and two cases either still under investigation or completed with a sealed result be possible without some kind of prison sentence?
I bet if I asked 50 federal prosecutors whether they think it's likely Trump could avoid prison if (1) he agreed to drop out of the presidential race and (2)signed a piece of paper saying he'd never run for office again, I'd bet all of them would say no.
Ramping it up a notch: What if he agreed to plead to a felony in each case and forfeit a ton of money and pay restitution to any victims -- could he avoid prison?
I don't need prosecutors to weigh in on this one. I think a global resolution along this line is possible, if he pays up front. The problem is Trump. Reportedly, he is a cheapskate as well as a narcissist. He might be incapable of accepting that anyone besides him is entitled to the money and assets he's accumulated. In other words, his ego may prevent his brain from being able to correctly calculate that such an offer would be the deal of the century, and he might actually turn it down.
I hope his lawyers provide him with Table D-4 from the Federal Judicial Caseload Statistics for the period of March, 2022 to March, 2023. Every federal district, bankruptcy and appeals court submits its case statistics every quarter. I think Trump could understand the table if explained by his lawyers: 98% of federal cases in the United States were resolved without a trial in these 12 months. Only 2% of federal defendants elected to go to trial. Of the 2% of cases that went to trial, the government got a conviction in 98% of them.
Example: False Statements (to a federal official): There were 517 cases charging this offense filed between March 2022 and March 2023. Ten cases went to trial (approximately 2% of the 517). Eight defendants were convicted at trial (.015 or 1.5% of the 517 cases). Two defendants (.004 or .04%) out of those 517 were acquitted at trial.
The odds that prosecutors would lose all four cases against Donald Trump if he went to trial are infinitesimal, in my view.
Trump also has a problem in that the Government has already spoken to everyone he knows -- from relatives, to lawyers and aides to acquaintances. All were given proffer letters or promises of immunity or deals to plead to an offense with no jail time. I assume this includes Giuliani. While occasionally a defendant is given credit for "ratting down", mostly they have to "rat up". And there's no one above Trump in these cases. Tag, he's it.
Trump is no doubt gazing into his crystal ball right now, as his army of revolving-door lawyers struggle to come up with a viable defense strategy.
If it were anyone but Trump (or Giuliani), I'd predict a global resolution where Trump is granted a "Rule 20" to have one of the two federal cases transferred to the district where the other case is pending, to plead guilty. He'd have to plead guilty in both cases but he could get a concurrent sentence. He'd have to pay restitution in the New York cas
I'll end here, but my next post on the topic (already written) is a very snarky view of what Trump might try to do to ensure a pardon for himself.
