In direct contradiction to recent Q and ARG polling, Ras sez McCain by 8 in Florida, and the off shore drilling issue does not hurt McCain:

The Florida survey also found that McCain currently leads Obama in the state by a 47% to 39% margin. Six percent (6%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided. However, after voters were told that McCain favored offshore drilling and Obama opposed it, McCain’s lead increased to eleven points, 49% to 38%. While a three-point net gain is not stunning, it is significant that the issue didn’t push voters towards Obama. All of McCain’s gains on the offshore drilling issue came from male voters.

Who is right? To be honest, this seems more in line with my feel for the state of the race in Florida.

By Big Tent Democrat

Good move. I think he should have announced it during the primaries as he will now get some tough media coverage for this decision when he would have gotten a free ride when he was running against Hillary Clinton.

UPDATE - Please note that I am not a believer in the current public campaign finance system as it exists. Universal public financing with much larger amounts is the only viable solution. I also believe Obama's "no lobbyist money" talk is complete nonsense. So, sorry if my lack of outrage offends.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Sen. Barack Obama today named his National Security team and delivered a prepared speech on the war on terror and Guantanamo. I'm disappointed with it.

Three examples:

There are terrorists who are determined to kill as many Americans as they can. The world’s most dangerous weapons risk falling into the wrong hands. And that is why the single greatest priority of my presidency will be doing anything and everything that I can to keep the American people safe. (my emphasis.)

If you were hoping universal health care or creating more jobs or reducing our country's reliance on incarceration would be his greatest priority, this is a letdown.

On Afghanistan: [More...]

Via Politico:

Clark was sitting at Obama's side when he met with retired flag officers earlier this afternoon. An Obama campaign aide emails that "General Clark attended the meeting that Obama had with retired military and admirals this afternoon and he will be an important voice on this campaign."

I like that the Obama camp made a point of correcting the Politico report that General Clark was not part of the Obama national security team. Ok, I cheerlead for one figure in politics, Wes Clark. So sue me.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

This is the Barack Obama I really like a lot. The one who is going to be a great President:

Sometimes during campaigns the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified," he conceded, after I reminded him that he had called NAFTA "devastating" and "a big mistake," despite nonpartisan studies concluding that the trade zone has had a mild, positive effect on the U.S. economy.

Does that mean his rhetoric was overheated and amplified? "Politicians are always guilty of that, and I don't exempt myself," he answered.

Self aware, rational and intelligent. He knows better than to believe his own press clippings. Good for him.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

One thing does bother me about the polling lately - while the state polls have shown a huge shift towards Obama - big leads in blue states (CA, NY, IL), sizable leads in big swing states (FL, OH, PA), ties in big red states (VA, NC) and yet the national polling has Obama by 4 after Obama opened as much as a 9 point lead in some national tracking polls.

The results do not jibe. One possible explanation is that the Q polls were taken from the 9th to the 16th. Early in that period, Obama's results ramped up nationally before coming back to 4. In a sense, perhaps the Q polls are already out of date. Just a thought.

By Big Tent Democrat

We now have ARG joining Quinnipiac in putting Obama ahead in Florida. To me this is the most stunning and welcome development of the general election campaign and I am wondering how it happened. I have seen no major campaigning by Obama in Florida, no ad blitz, no nothing really, to explain it.

So I want to drill down into the numbers a bit to consider what is going on. The Q-Poll has the following demographic breakdown for Florida:

Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.

I've never watched an entire episode of the View (or Oprah or Ellen or any day time talk show.) But, I'm going to give it a shot today to watch Michelle Obama. I'll post my reactions (not a live transcript) here.

If you're watching the show, feel free to live-blog in comments. Please keep your comments on topic, which is her guest-hosting of the show. (If you just want to express your general opinions of her for other reasons or discuss sexism or Hillary, please do it elsewhere.)

Noon ET: The show begins, updates below.

Quinnipiac has terrific news for Barack Obama today. In Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac University polls show:

* Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
* Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

(Emphasis supplied.) If these numbers are real and hold up, Obama will win in a landslide.

By Big Tent Democrat

The New York Times presents the new Michelle Obama. The campaign, as I noted here, has been carefully re-working her image since the end of the primary.

The new Michelle is softer, less lawyer-like and the focus is on her past successful efforts at helping minorities, both African-American and Latino, and working to better race relations.

....her husband’s presidential campaign is giving her image a subtle makeover, with a new speech in the works to emphasize her humble roots and a tough new chief of staff. On Wednesday, Mrs. Obama will do a guest turn on “The View,” the daytime talk show on ABC, with an eye toward softening her reputation.

Details below the fold, but let me state here, this post is not intended as criticism of Michelle Obama and gratuitous insults to her in comments will be deleted. Feel free to discuss your opinions as to the impact of her makeover on voters or its factual details, but angry, personal hostility to her is not acceptable. [More..]

Obama and McCain in dead heat in Minnesota? Obama by 11 in Ohio? McCain by 4 in North Carolina? Does any of this make sense? Not to me frankly. But let's start with the best "news" first - the PPP Ohio poll:

Obama leads by equal margins among men and women, and has a four point lead with white voters while also holding a dominant 75-21 advantage with African Americans.

A Democrat has not won white voters in Ohio in a Presidential election since Bill Clinton in 1996. Obama leads by 11 DESPITE "only" winning African American voters (13% of the Ohio electorate according to the poll) by 75-21? No gender gap? Puhleeeaze. That said, it means something - to wit, Obama should fight as hard for Ohio as any swing state because he can win it and stop McCain dead in his tracks right there. McCain can NOT lose Ohio and win the Presidency in my estimation. More.

The similarities in policy positions between John McCain and President Bush overwhelm the differences. The New York Times has a handy comparison showing a confluence of their beliefs regarding abortion, judicial appointments, continuing the war in Iraq, opposition to habeas corpus for Guantanamo detainees, the expansion of executive power, warrantless wiretapping, and the privatization of social security, among other issues.

Some of McCain's positions are politically opportunistic flip-flops, most notably his newfound respect for the Bush tax cuts he once opposed. And there's this:

Mr. McCain says Roe v. Wade "should be overturned," an idea he spoke out against in 1999 ...

As this article observes, "McCain appears to have ceded some of his carefully cultivated reputation as a maverick." No kidding. [more ...]