Jerome Armstrong reports on the political landscape for the Fall congressional elections:

A 15 seat gain would be tremendous for Democrats in the House in 2008. Going into the 2006 election, there were 202 Democrats and 232 Republicans and 1 Independent. Democrats won 31 seats in '06, and then have won seats in 3 special elections, to now hold a 236-199 advantage heading into the 2008 election.

And my question is this, in terms of policy what will change because of this 15 seat gain? What do we expect from the current Democratic Party in terms of policy? Some things I suppose - federal funding of stem cell research, the renewal of S-Chip, the eventual wind down of the Iraq Debacle. These things matter. But will there be a renewal of progressivism in Washington with Obama as President and a padded Democratic majority? I doubt it. This election has been run by the Dem Party with a "We Are Not Bush Republicans On Everything, Just Some Things" platform. And that is what we will get.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

From WaPo, via Political Wire, McCain advisor Charlie Blakc signals that McCain has made his VP decision:

He's [McCain] in a position to make the decision on short notice if he wanted to."

It seems clear to me McCain has made his decision. From the Wapo article:

Two top aides to the presumptive Republican nominee said the decision is likely to be announced after Obama returns from Europe on Sunday and before the Beijing Olympics begin Aug. 8.

I think it is the Mittster. What's your guess?

John McCain takes a shot at Sen. Barack Obama and his Berlin speech today:

While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap today in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a 'citizen of the world,' John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving, improving and protecting America. Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about it."

More...

James Leo Bishop was executed in Mississippi last night. His last words included an apology to his victims and a request for people to vote for Sen. Barack Obama:

Before he died Wednesday evening, death row inmate Dale Leo Bishop apologized to his victim's family, thanked America and urged people to vote for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

"For those who oppose the death penalty and want to see it end, our best bet is to vote for Barack Obama because his supporters have been working behind the scenes to end this practice," Bishop said.

There's no question Sen. Barack Obama is more attuned to the racial disparity in the application of the death penalty and plight of the wrongly convicted than John McCain. However, he's not a death penalty opponent.

Nonetheless, Mr. Bishop makes the right call between McCain and Obama. May he rest in peace. [More...]

I've been in court and missed Obama's speech in Berlin today. 200,000 people turned out to hear him. Here's the transcript. He told the assembled crowd he speaks to them as a citizen of the world.

One message: Tear down the walls.

The walls between the countries with the most and those with the least cannot stand. The walls between races and tribes; natives and immigrants; Christian and Muslim and Jew cannot stand. These now are the walls we must tear down.

The German paper says it was clearly taken from Ronald Reagan:

Obama's speech was a clear echo of former US president Ronald Reagan's call to then Soviet leader Mikhael Gorbachev in Berlin in 1987 to "tear down this wall," before the fall of communism.

A big theme was the war on terror: [More...]

There are probably good reasons to think that reducing the speed limit to 55 makes sense as gas prices continue to soar. Still, while I don't agree with all of the reasoning in this essay (particularly the notion that "liberal and green do-gooders" are standing in the way of our God-given right to pillage the planet's natural resources), I do agree with Sammy Hagar:

VoteVets will start running this ad on Friday.

While the top line number is familiar, 47-41 Obama, the story remains the voters' focus on Obama:

51 percent of respondents say they are focusing more on what kind of president Obama would be, compared with just 27 percent who say they’re focusing more on McCain. “This election is more about Barack Obama than it is about John McCain,” says Newhouse, the GOP pollster.

That is McCain's forlorn hope - to raise doubts about Obama. But we see that he and his campaign are just not good at it. Give the devil his due, Karl Rove knew how to play negative politics. McCain's team is terrible at it so far.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Yesterday, John McCain wanted more Media attention. Today, Matt Yglesias notes Ben Smith's piece on John McCain cancelling his press availability:

[McCain] hasn't explained what he meant by juggling the timeline on the surge and Awakening . . . ; whether he meant that Obama was deliberately selling out the country; whether he shares his campaign's grievance with the press; or what he thinks of his staff's genocide-themed attack. And now he's canceled the avail.

I guess McCain did not want more Media attention after all.

By Big Tent Democrat

Poor John McCain. He has to compete for attention against Barack Obama even when Obama is out of the country. And he has to compete for attention against Bob Barr, who is likely to deflect some votes that would otherwise come his way. Now, at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, he'll have to compete for attention against the entertaining Ron Paul, whose planned rally during the Republican convention looks to be so popular that it's had to move to a larger venue -- the Target Center in neighboring Minneapolis.

Paul, who has often voiced his differing policy views from presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, has made it clear in past interviews with CNN his supporters won’t be in Minneapolis to interfere or cause problems for the Republican Party. “We’re not going to disrupt them,” Paul told CNN last month. “We’re not going to demonstrate as much as present a positive case for values that we believe should be the Republican values.”

As opposed to McCain's values, which are ... um ...

I had the tv on in the background and this new ad came on. On my TV, the "Obama, Obama, Obama" (in response to the question, who's to blame for rising gas prices, was louder than it is in the video released by the McCain campaign.

It's clever to use real Obama supporters as the chanters but will anyone buy that Obama is responsible for ourrent high gas prices? A better argument (although also not true)would have been that if elected, Obama won't make prices go down. As a Senator, and one who has rarely been there to cast votes the last year and a half, it's just silly to blame our current gas prices on him.

Subtitle - I told you so. Via TPM, McCain is whining that Obama is the Media Darling:

The campaign of John McCain -- who once described the media as his "base" -- has come up with a pretty creative way to portray the media as "in love" with Barack Obama, blasting two versions of this video right into the in-boxes of the swooning reporters themselves...