We're watching a live interview with Ralph Nader on Fox News.

He will decide in 2 to 3 weeks whether he is running. If he runs, it will be on an Independent ticket. His mind is close to being made up.

On whether he cost Gore the election: He says Gore beat Gore by not getting Tennessee or Arkansas, either one of which would have resulted in him beating Bush. Nader says if you're looking to blame someone, "blame the thieves who stole the election," naming Jeb Bush & Katherine Harris among others.

He said he won't support the Democratic candidate if he decides not to run because he's an Independent. He praised Dennis Kucinich.

Check this out from Newsweek:

Riding high on his victory in the Iowa caucus—and benefiting from former Vermont governor Howard Dean’s embarrassing “I have a scream” speech—Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has surged to the head of the pack of democratic presidential hopefuls, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll, commanding 30 percent of support from registered Democrats, up from 11 percent two weeks ago. And for the first time in the poll's history a Democrat is enjoying a marginal advantage over President George W. Bush. In a hypothetical face-off, Kerry commanded a three-point lead over the president. Dean’s support among registered and likely Democrats, meanwhile, has been cut in half, to 12 percent. That puts him in three-way tie for second place in the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary with retired Gen. Wesley Clark (12 percent) and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (13 percent). [emphasis our's.]

What did you think? Will this be the ticket?

We caught the last hour of the Democratic debate. No one shined, no one made a huge faux pas. Edwards was very good. We liked all of them--except Lieberman with his "Iraq was a just war" and "Saddam was a clear and present danger" rhetoric.

Some news reports: ABC News has Dems Debate in N.H., Seek to Temper Flaws and the New York Times has Speculations and Calculations Focus on Dean.

The Washington Post says electability is the key issue in New Hampshire (as it reportedly was in Iowa) and many independents are still on the fence (as they reportedly were in Iowa.)

The full transcript is here.

Calpundit and Pandagon blogged live throughout the debate. Dave Cullen of Conclusive Evidence rants on the press going after Howard Dean for his Iowa speech in The Big Lie of the Anger Connection.

In case you missed Howard Dean on Letterman last night, Political Wire has the top ten list Dean read on tonight's show on how he can turn things around.

[comments now closed]

John Kerry is on a roll. Fox News television is reporting that he raised over 1/2 million dollars in the past three days, picking up over 40 of Gephardt's supporters. His crowds have been standing room only. He has front runner status. We just saw his wife on the debut of Deborah Norville Tonight on MSNBC. Very low-key. She was complimentary to Judy Dean and Joe Lieberman.

The question on the news analysts' tongues tonight is will a Dean defeat in New Hampshire mean Dean is done?

Lieberman is reportedly promising to stay on no matter how he does in New Hampshire. We think he should take the high road like Gephardt and withdraw if he doesn't do well in New Hampshire.

In other campaign news, CNN reports that it has gotten its hands on a memo from the John Edwards campaign that tells volunteers how to slam his Democratic rivals.

We love The Horse. Go read the whole thing:

CBS: "BUSH APPROVAL SINKING"

BUSH APPROVAL LOWEST SINCE STEALING OFFICE DISAPPROVAL HIGHEST SINCE STEALING OFFICE

MAJORITY SAYS BUSH'S WAR NOT WORTH THE RISKS

SADDAM CAPTURE FAILING TO HELP FAILURE

AMERICANS THINK BUSH IMMIGRATION, SPACE "INITIATIVES" INSANE

57% SAY THINGS WORSE NOW THAN BEFORE BUSH SUCCESSFULLY PETITIONED SCALIA FIVE TO CRUSH BALLOT COUNT AND INSTALL HIM INTO PEOPLE'S WHITE HOUSE

[comments now closed, there are 127, we usually limit to 100.]

The day after....Dean holds a slim and dwindling two point lead over Kerry. Kos says the conventional wisdom is that Iowa should be good for five to ten points in New Hampshire.

Eric Alterman at Altercation has a good take on what we learned from Iowa last night.

Say hello to Blog for the Future by SEIU (Service Employees International Union).

Avedon Carol of Sideshow on Dean's loss last night:

Look, folks, one of the reasons you were supporting Dean was because, unlike his opponents, he looked like a guy who was more interested in the urgent business of beating Bush than in merely becoming the Democratic nominee. If you aren't interested in that same project of beating Bush, and only care about electing your candidate, you're just plain not serious. And we really don't have time for that.

There is a very interesting editorial in the Japanese Herald Tribune/Asahi on the 2004 Presidential election and Bush. We'll quote some of it:

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is watching this presidential race even more attentively than usual, wondering whether changes will emerge in the United States' fight against terror and its unilateralist action, which heavily tinges the Bush administration. The two wars that the Bush administration waged after the Sept. 11 terrorist attack demonstrated the overwhelming military strength of the United States and, in the case of Iraq, shattered what it regards as a threat with pre-emptive attacks without the approval of the United Nations and the international community.

Such a display of power humiliated the entire Islamic world and has prepared a breeding ground for terrorism and anti-American sentiment, even though it did succeed in persuading Libya to give up its nuclear development program. There are many problems the international community as a whole must address, such as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, international terrorism, the wide gap in wealth between the rich and poor countries and global warming. Under such circumstances, global geopolitical divisions will only widen if the United States continues to cling to unilateralism.

Iowa's a done deal. Kerry, followed by Edwards, followed weakly by Dean. Gephardt dropped out, as he should. The other candidates were very nice in their praise for him. As Atrios says,

Kudos to Gephardt for defying the CW of people like me and managing to be a credible candidate.

Kerry's speech was good. Bush needs to be laid off. Ashcroft needs to go. Bring it on.

He could do it. Where did Dean misstep? Can Dean recoup? Will it be Kerry vs. Clark in New Hampshire? Can Edwards pull off the same coup in New Hampshire he did in Iowa and come in second there? Seems like he has a new lease on electorial life.

Right now, we're impressed with Kerry and with Edwards. But what will New Hampshire bring?

Max Cleland's support for Kerry as a Viet Nam vet helps. It was touching to see Kerry hug him during his acceptance speech. We suspect Cleland will be close to a fixture on Kerry's campaign trail.

Kos of Daily Kos on Dean's loss:

Loser: Dean

Ouch. Word on the ground is he had the worst media, and far too much of it. Lost his message. All those endorsements (Gore, Bradley, Harkin) directly contradicted his anti-establishment message.

Our congrats to John Kerry. He worked for this win, and he got it. So did Edwards. Loved his use of John Mellencamp's "Small Town" as a campaign theme.

Update: Political Wire on What Happened to Dean?

Don't miss The Daily Show's (Jon Stewart) video of Bush v. Bush. Hopefully you
have a hi-speed connection because it's terrific. It is video clips of Bush's statements when running for election compared to his statements (and actions) after the Supreme Court made him president. The link is to the Daily Show, from there click on Bush v. Bush on the top left. [hat tip to Kelley]

Daily Kos has the final Iowa poll numbers--including a composite poll of Daily Kos readers and a lot of analysis.

Here are TalkLeft's predictions (but note, we are still undecided as to who we will endorse)

Dean 24
Kerry 23
Edwards 22
Gephardt 18

Kos makes a good point about Clark's price for skipping Iowa:

Had Clark competed in Iowa, I bet Edward's surprising last-minute surge would've been Clark's. And the momentum of a surprise finish would've been invaluable heading into New Hampshire and the Feb 3 states.

Your turn, but please, keep this one to Iowa.

Update: Kucinich and Edwards agree to share their voters. This hurts Gephardt who was hoping to make the deal with Kucincich.

"The caucuses take place at 6:30 p.m. in 1,993 locations — public buildings, but also private homes — across the state."

Howard Dean left Iowa to go to church with Jimmy Carter in Georgia.

Dr. Dean said last week that he was skipping 20 of the last 48 hours in the Iowa campaign because "when the former president of the United States asks you to go to church with him on the Sunday before caucuses, I think you probably take that up." But Mr. Carter said today that the visit had actually been Dr. Dean's idea and that he hoped all the Democratic candidates would make the pilgrimage to Plains "to kind of heal wounds and show that we can all worship together."

"I didn't invite him," the former president, wearing a bolo tie, told reporters and parishioners as he entered the church this morning. "He called me on the phone and said he'd like to come worship with me."

It was a coincidence, Mr. Carter said, that he was teaching from Job, which Dr. Dean has cited as his favorite Bible book. "After I won in Iowa, I realized what Job was talking about," President Carter said. "It seemed like everybody descended on me with all kinds of abuse and accusations. And I felt like I was innocent, too."

Update: Nitpicker noticed something in the article that we missed:

As promised, Mr. Carter did not offer an endorsement, but did refer to him as a friend and "fellow Christian," praising his "courageous and outspoken posture." The two men shook hands, but did not raise them in the traditional politicians' pose.

This just in from NORML:

Just in time for the first official Democratic Presidential primary, NORML has issued its 2004 Presidential Candidate Report Card. Marijuana law reform promises to be a pivotal and highly publicized issue this election, and NORML's Presidential Candidate Report Card is a quick reference guide to each Democratic candidate's position on various marijuana-related issues, including decriminalization, the legalization of medicinal marijuana, and the repeal of the drug conviction exclusionary provision to the Higher Education Act.

This primary season, get informed before you "Smoke the Vote." Check out NORML's 2004 Presidential Candidate Report Card.